Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) Chief Executive Doug Oberhelman predicted Thursday "we will win in China," as he vowed to make the company the leading construction equipment brand in China by 2015.
Caterpillar, which is already the world's largest maker of bulldozers, excavators and other equipment, is ramping up its investments in assembly plants, management expertise and dealers to make significant gains in the Chinese equipment market.
"We are stepping it up big time and putting our money where our mouths are," said Oberhelman during a presentation to Wall Street analysts and investors in New York City. "We're going to play offense and we're going to win. We will win in China."
Oberhelman, however, was vague on the specific benchmarks for measuring the company's growth initiatives in China. He said the company's goal is to achieve the same market leadership status in China that it maintains in North America.
The Asia-Pacific region has been Caterpillar's fastest-growing geographic market in recent years, as rapid infrastructure development and mining expansions fuel demand for machinery.
Caterpillar reported Thursday that retail sales of its machinery in Asia rose 41% during the three-month period ended in July, compared with a year earlier. The July increase follows a 36% increase during the June period and a 38% sales climb in May.
Caterpillar is counting on explosive growing from China, India and other developing markets to offset slower sales growth in the U.S. and Europe. But the company's growth in Asia has come off a small sales base, relative to Caterpillar's sales levels in more mature markets. Caterpillar's sales in China currently make up less than 10% of the company's overall revenue.
Moreover, the Peoria, Ill., company faces dozens of domestic competitors in China, a market that is largely made up of regional equipment companies and cost-sensitive buyers.
"There's not a clear leader by brand over there," Oberhelman said. "At the moment, we're all in single digits" in market share.
Caterpillar's exposure to the global construction sector and capital equipment spending makes the company a closely watched indicator of world-wide economic activity. Oberhelman, who took over as chief executive last month, maintained his assessment from last month that the U.S. economy is not heading toward another recession.
"There just seems to be doom and gloom around" about the threat of a double-dip recession. "Right now, we don't see it that way."
Caterpillar reiterated its long-term outlook for earnings per share of $8 to $10 in 2012. The company continues to see 2012 sales in a range of $55 billion to $60 billion.
With sales this year expected to top $40 billion, Caterpillar said the $55 billion target could be reached with sales growth of 12% in 2011 and 2012, while the $60 billion target could be achieved with 17% sales growth in each of the next two years.
But analysts have been skeptical lately about whether the company can reach its 2012 goals, given the growing evidence that economic growth is stalling. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the company to earn $6.55 a share in 2012 off sales of $51.6 billion.
"Given the right scenario, it's doable," said Eli Lustgarten, an analyst for Longbow Research, about Caterpillar's 2012 outlook. "When you're talking about 2012, you're only as good as your economic forecast."
Lustgarten said he was impressed with Oberhelman's emphasis on making employees at all levels of the company more accountable for the company's performance.
Oberhelman pledged that Caterpillar will show significant profit improvement during the next upturn in the equipment market. "We will hold down the cost structure," he said. "We can do better than we've done in the past. We can do more with less."
A series of recently announced plant expansions in both the U.S. and abroad is intended to avoid the production capacity shortage that hamstrung the company's operations and eroded profits during the last surge in demand that began in 2003.
For 2010, the company expects to earn about $3.50 a share off about $40.5 billion in sales. Caterpillar's stock closed the regular trading session down 46 cents, or 0.7%, at $69.29 a share. Shares rose 10 cents to $69.39 in late trading.